NFL Lines
I recall the first time that I looked at a series of NFL lines and they presented something of a challenge.
This was partly due to the fact that I was a relatively inexperienced bettor but also because any bet that I had previously placed had been in a fractional format e.g. betting on a soccer team at odds of 3/1 - which was easy enough, bet 5 dollars and your possible upside is 15 dollars.
Looking at the NFL line for the 'pointspread' it read something like this: "New York Jets +7 -110 at New England Patriots -7 -110". Help!
So what is the line saying? Firstly the team is listed, in this case the Jets / Patriots, then you have the pointspread or handicap - this can be a positive or a negative number, and is applied to a team to 'even up' the teams and to help attract an even spread of betting action for the bookmaker. This type of line effectively relates to final score deficits. If in the above example the Jets start with a +7 point advantage and the Patriots with -7 and the final score was 10 - 7 to the Pats, they would win the game of course but bets on the Jets at +7 on the pointspread, would mean that Jets backers would win because taking their actual points tally of '7' and adding to that their handicap of +7 takes them to 14, so you have a 'virtual' victory of 14-10 to the Jets. Working it a different way, take 7 off the Pats score (in line with their handicap of -7) gives you 3 and a 'virtual' victory to the Jets of 7-3. Either way in this example the Jets win the bet. Bets that end up as a draw or 'push' once the handicap has been applied - have the applicable stake returned to the customer.
Lastly we have the odds. Perhaps the best way to grasp NFL lines, are to think of them as being shown in a format that is based around 100 USD bets. If there is a '+' in front of the number, think: "This is what I could win if I place a bet for a hundred dollars". If there is a '-' in front of the number, think: "This is how much I have to bet to potentially win a hundred dollars."
So if you are looking at NFL lines in the futures market for Super Bowl. You may see the Minnesota Vikings at +1400. This means that a USD 100 bet what win USD 1400 if the Vikings won the Super Bowl. In our pointspread example the line stands at -110. This means that as a bettor you will need to bet USD 110 to have a chance of winning USD 100.
Of course you don't have to bet USD 100. You may bet USD 5 or USD 5000 or from anywhere between the minimum or maximum stake that the sportsbook allows. You could for example bet USD 25 on Minnesota for the Super Bowl at +1400 to potentially win USD 350, or bet USD 15 on the pointspread at -110 to potentially win USD 13.64. It is just a little easier to understand the lines if you think in terms of bets of USD 100, or think in terms of winning USD 100.
NFL lines take other formats too. The moneyline bet is a 'straight up' wager concerning the two teams without the handicap. Team A might be a favorite at odd of: -200 (You need to bet USD 200 to potentially win USD 100 for a total return, including stake, of USD 300). Team B the underdog at odds of: +300 (A USD 100 bet could potentially win USD 300 for a overall return, including stake, of USD 400). Ties have stakes returned and happen so infrequently since games are almost always settled in overtime if not in regular time.
The third major type of NFL line is the 'totals' or 'over/under' market. Here the line might read: "Total Line: Over 36 -110, Under 36 -110" Here you are simply betting on whether or not you think that the total combined scores of teams will be above or below the posted total number. So if the Patriots and the Jets result is 28-14 (total = 42) then with a posted total number of 36, this would be a win for 'Over' bettors. Had the score been 13-10 (total=23) then with a posted total line of 36, this would be a win for 'Under' players.
An important thing to appreciate about
NFL lines, is that it is a live market and the numbers can change, dramatically sometimes. You will first get the 'opening lines' these are first set of lines posted by sportsbook - sometimes these can be good lines to get on if you feel they are inaccurate - which they can be as the linesmaker has little information to go on at this stage. It is often only later in the week that a clearer picture emerges on the health and state of a team.
Movements in the line mean opportunity to the shrewd bettor and it is the reason why NFL lines posted by the sportsbook, can be beaten. If you can get on teams at +7.5 instead of +7, or at -2 instead of -3, then in the long run you are likely to be profitable.
Lastly, the sportsbook will often display its whole set of NFL lines together, so don't get confused. It could look something like this:
New York Jets +7 -110. +300. Over 36 -110.
New York Pats -7 -110. -200. Under 36 -110.
You'll get some headings probably! But the above shows the Team(s) followed by the Pointspread / Line followed by the Moneyline, followed by the Totals line. Note the Totals layout can be a bit confusing for novices - the bet is not on the Jets to score over 36 points and the Pats to score under 36 points - the layout is referring to the total points in the game and the teams should be ignored for this purpose.
Good luck.
Back to Sports / Betting Articles
Sites:
Sportsbook
Sports Odds:
NFL |
NBA |
MLB |
NHL |
NCAAF |
NCAAB |
Soccer |
Golf
Futures:
Super Bowl |
NBA Championship |
World Series |
Stanley Cup
