Melee In Miama Preview to Super Bowl XLI -
2 February 2007
Betting / Preview:
Things are heating up in South Florida even if it is expected to be in the low 70’s and overcast with thundershowers. Well expect more thunder as Indianapolis takes on Chicago in what is expected to be an Offense vs. Defense spectacular.
Everyone is longing for a big show, and this could become an instant classic with Peyton Manning ready to air it out and Brian Urlacher ready to snuff it out, each leading their teams to possible victory on Sunday.
The Breakdown
Colt’s QB vs. Bear’s pass rush and pass coverage
Peyton Manning has the often discussed but seldom understood ‘it’ factor. He is a proven leader and has enough experience in battling out victories that the Super Bowl venue will not intimidate him. He will be focused and ready to go. His presence in the pocket and his accuracy are going to give Chicago a stiff test. Peyton will also not be intimidated by the Bears pass rush. Manning has already been challenged by 5 of the 8 sack leaders above Chicago, and came out with victories over each one. New England and Baltimore boast some of the elite defenses in the league, and they both failed to shake the nine-year veteran. With two +1000 yard receivers to throw to as well as two soft-handed RB’s, I would have to give the edge to Manning and company. The Bears defensive front and secondary are as bad news as it gets, but the Colts offensive arsenal is well oiled and should find the chinks in Chicago’s armor.
Bear’s QB vs. Colt’s pass rush and pass coverage
The name Rex Grossman hasn’t been known to strike fear in the hearts of defensive linemen or create butterflies in the pits of opposing defensive backs. Rex without a doubt will be considered one of the worst QB’s that has ever played in a Super Bowl. Going back to 1990, I have only found two whose ratings were worse, and they were Steve Reich who filled in for an injured Jim Kelly vs. Dallas in 1993, and John Elway who went up against Joe Montana in 1990. Anyone remember the scores of those two Super Bowls. The collective scores for both were 107 to 27 against them. This does not bode well for Rex as the Colts offensive machine can score points in a hurry.
Ratings of QB’s the season they made it to the Super Bowl.
2007 Peyton Manning 101.0
2007 Rex Grossman 73.9
2006 Matt Hasselbeck 98.2
2006 Ben Roethlisberger 98.6
2005 Tom Brady 92.6
2005 Donovan McNabb 104.7
2004 Tom Brady 85.9
2004 Jake Delhomme 80.6
2003 Rich Gannon 97.3
2003 B. Johnson 92.9
2002 Tom Brady 86.5
2002 Kurt Warner 101.4
2001 Trent Dilfer 76.6
2001 Kerry Collins 83.1
2000 Kurt Warner 109.2
2000 S. McNair 78.6
1999 John Elway 93.0
1999 Chris Chandler 100.9
1998 John Elway 87.5
1998 Brett Favre 92.6
1997 Drew Bledsoe 83.7
1997 Brett Favre 95.8
1996 Troy Aikman 93.6
1996 Neil O'Donnell 87.7
1995 Steve Young 112.8
1995 Stan Humphries 81.6
1994 Troy Aikman 99.0
1994 Jim Kelly 79.9
1993 Troy Aikman 89.5
1993 Frank Reich 46.5
1992 Mark Rypien 97.9
1992 Jim Kelly 97.6
1991 Jim Kelly 101.2
1991 Jeff Hostetler 82.5
1990 Joe Montana 112.4
1990 John Elway 73.7
Fortunately for Rex, the Bears discovered a running game late in the season. Unfortunately for the Bears, Indianapolis discovered a run defense late in the season. Fortunately for Rex, The Colts are not in the habit of bringing the house. Unfortunately for Rex, the Colts have one of the tightest defensive secondaries in the NFL. If Chicago can’t scrape up enough of a run game to keep Indy honest, they are going to have to score off of Rex’s arm and accuracy. The edge in this battle is clearly in the Colt’s favor.
Colt’s Olne vs Bears Dline
This will be the key battle to determine if Chicago can offset their weak offense with a strong defensive effort. The pressure they can apply to Peyton will be the deciding factor in this game. There is no question that the Monsters of the Midway have been reborn. Their ability to disrupt play at or through the line is what has gotten them a free ride to Miami. However, the biggest reason behind Peyton’s success this season has to be the hogs up front. They have only allowed a league least 15 sacks all season. That is less than one a game. While the Colts Oline may be tested, the edge is clearly theirs in this battle.
Bears Oline vs Colt’s Dline
The sad thing about this is that if Chicago had a better general under center, they would have been really scary. Rex cannot blame his ineptitude on any breakdowns in the trenches. The Bears have a solid cadre of linemen protecting their QB as well as opening up lanes to run through. While Indianapolis has discovered a rush D as of late, it is still too early to know if they have really turned the corner on this matter. The edge here has to go to Chicago. This means that neither defensive front will have a clear advantage in this game.
Colts RB’s vs Bears LB’s
Fuhget about it! Colts like to throw and their best RB just scraped in a cool grand in yards on the ground. Add to this pedestrian running game an explosive ingredient named Brian Urlacher and you know the result ahead of time. Indianapolis is going to have to score through the air this game. While their run game is serviceable, it isn’t strong enough to blow the things wide open. They will most likely accrue 100+ for the game, but when it really matters, the Bears LB can keep things under control.
Bears RB’s vs. Colts LB’s
While not as explosive the picture here is rather similar. The Bears are forced to rely on the run more, but the re-emergence of Rob Morris as an outside linebacker has really made a difference for the Colts since the Cincinnati game. His stable outside presence will play a key role in containing any threats by Bear RB Thomas Jones. The edge here has swung in the Colts favor.
Colts Receiving Corp vs. Bears Secondary
Chicago Secondary is solid. They are not the sick shut down squad that you would normally associate with a game like this one, but they can keep the game underneath, which allows for more opportunities for the opponent to make mistakes. Their brand of bend don’t break has worked well vs. NFC teams. Peyton has excellent accuracy, and he has the luxury of progressing through his first, second, third, even fourth option on throwing downs. Indy does well in the red zone, and they will be more than willing to take what Chicago gives them. Edge here belongs clearly to the Colts.
Bears Receiving Corp vs. Colts Secondary
Ouch! This one really hurts. Chicago has some excellent talent among their receivers. They have five strong options on most passing downs including Desmond Clark and Thomas Jones. Two problems however make this a daunting task for the Bears. First of all, Grossman has to actually get the ball to his receivers. While 54.6% might seem sufficient to get the job done, his 6.7 yards per attempt average is extremely poor. Secondly, given the lock down nature of the Indianapolis secondary, zipping the ball through the eye of a needle might be easier for Rex to do. Advantage Colts. No discussion necessary.
Special Teams vs. Special Teams
Colts Kicking Team is third worse in the league allowing an average of 26 yards per kick return. Chicago is averaging slightly less on returns, so no edge to either team here.
Bears kicking team is somewhat better allowing just slightly more than 20 yards per return. Indianapolis averages over 23 yards per return, so again no real advantage for either team.
Colts and Bears are almost identical on punting the ball. However the advantage goes to Chicago due to their excellent punt return game.
Field Goals and PATs: Bears control a slight edge over the Colts here due to their kickers getting more field goal experience due to the lack of touchdowns.
Intangibles:
Finally Peyton’s leadership is unquestioned by his offense. He is clearly an all star QB who belongs in this game. This gives Indy a clear edge.
Chicago’s ability to strip the ball loose or pick it off has demoralized more than one opponent. The 3 recovered fumbles and the solo interception were truly the difference maker in their game vs. New Orleans. This gives Chicago a clear edge
All in all, Indianapolis looks like the team to win in this year’s Super Bowl. They may have looked a bit suspect coming into the playoffs given their recent history, but there is no question that they are running on all cylinders. Chicago may have skated by Seattle and New Orleans, but the Colts will be too much to handle on Sunday. From a betting perspective it's the Colts by no less than two scores.
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