Football Betting and Weather
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22 August 2006
Serious weather conditions will impact upon football betting results - and just because the result came out the way you predicted, doesn't mean
the weather didn't have an effect!
Bad weather can very often help an underdog by creating a more 'level playing field'. Let's face it - if a poor team are languishing at the bottom
of the NFL and are coming up againt a top team - hot on offense and defense - then a bit of rain and mud can only help the underdog's cause.
It is also generally
considered that football total scores will also be lower in wet, cold, muddy, conditions. Teams tend to keep things 'tighter' by running the
ball more and making shorter plays rather than risk a long ball downfield in driving rain.
But in every case where you think weather may be a factor - remember that there is a big difference between a bad forecast
and the forecast bad weather actually arriving over the field of play. Also make sure you know which teams are playing
in domes where weather conditions will have no effect!
There is nothing new in the assumption that football teams from the sun such as Miami or Tampa face a tougher test when they travel
northwards for mid-winter games. The opposite is also most likely true in that teams comfortable in freezing conditions
struggle in extreme heat. But make sure you keep an eye on motivational factors - if for example Miami were humiliated
on their own turf by the Patriots - you may find that the Dolphins might put up a better fight than expected if they met later in the
season in cold New England. One thing teams do have in the NFL is pride.
To summarise, if you feel extreme weather is likely to threaten - work out the likelihood of that extreme weather actually occurring,
analyse the team and their style of play and decide if you want to back them or oppose them in the forecast condtions, decide which betting market holds the value i.e pointspread, totals, moneyline, then get down
on the line at the opportune moment before other bettors. You can pick up serious value.
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