Making Football Picks!
There are a lot of variables in football - some you can factor in to your game analysis - many you can't. Successful
football picks, even for the pros, are hard to come by. Remember, in a very good season a good handicapper will only
win 58 out of 100 bets. He bets big though!
A good place to start is early in the week watching the 'NFL wrap' style programs readily available on the TV. Listen to
what coaches are saying, what players are saying and assess their levels of motivation. Of course you need to analyse
this on the field too on game day.
Through the week, as you get closer to the Sunday kick off, you will get a clearer picture regarding injuries to players, the weather,
staff and management changes, rivalries, and NFL gossip (remember the T Owens affair and
what a bad effect it had on the Eagles?) Try to understand how these issues might affect the result.
Many more knowledgeable punters like to make their football picks earlier in the week - when the
lines first go up.
The reason for this is that they can pick up the value. Indeed the sportsbooks expect this early action and it helps them
to even out their spreads.
Very often it can pay to get onto a favorite early because that team, especially if it is a popular team, will often have their spread
deteriorate during the course of the week e.g from -2.5 to -3. Conversely, it can pay to get on to an underdog later in the week
because in order to draw some action on an unfashionable team the sportsbook may move out the line from e.g +9 to +10 or +11.
Of course the danger of getting in your football picks early is that a key participant could be ruled out of the game later in the week,
or the weather could change dramatically, which often effects the Totals (over / under) market.
Sometimes, even when virtually all the information points to the favorite winning and covering the spread - you may well still
take the opposing team from a value perspective. This likelihood of the favorite winning could already be 'in the price' and you need
to know when to leave teams alone. The best way is to have an idea of the spread or odds in your head after you have
gathered your information and before you look at the posted line!
Other points, less obvious than some, are also worth looking at. Is the game you are
betting on a Monday night game going out live
to the whole country? You'd be surprised how a dog team can pick themselves up under the spotlight. Also look at whether or not
one of the teams has been humiliated by the other in the previous game? Is it likely to happen again - perhaps the spread
is skewed due to that last game?
Hopefully the above had proven somewhat helpful and help you to decide on your own nfl football picks and what factors to consider.
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