MLB Betting and Totals or Over / Unders
The long term trend in MLB betting is for 'unders' - that is, the score will more often end up under the total posted by the sportsbook. There is probably a simple enough reason for this and that is that the average bettor will generally go for the 'over' because he wants to support his team or cheer on attacking play. He will also know that while the game is still going on, if he hasn't won the bet early on, he pretty much always has a chance of still winning his bet - until right at the death when time may kill any hope if the score is nowhere near the number.
Unders aren't as much 'fun'. Your bet can be lost sooner rather than later if the game hits the total in an early innings. You also find yourself supporting defences and low scores, which could ultimately be boring games. It's probably fair to say that most 'fans' will bet the 'over' while most serious bettors will bet the 'under' more.
The sportsbooks are aware of this and so over time take account for the extra action on 'overs'. Any value to be had most often lies on the 'under' side of the book.
Casual bettors are fairly relaxed in their approach to finding winning bets - that's fine because the vast majority are betting within their means and are just having a bit of fun. Those that do put in a little time may research the average run count for a game but this in itself can be misleading because averages are affected by big scores - maybe the odd 18 or 20 run game. With the average run rate of around 8 across the league - big scores skew the average higher because with a high score you can get 10 or 12 runs over the average - but you can't get 10 or 12 runs below the average.
The factors to consider perhaps more than average runs are how scores might have been affected in previous games by:
1. Schedule comparisons - how tough has each team's schedule been.
2. Mental state of the teams, fatigue, management.
3. Injury situation of both teams and of the teams they have just played.
4. Pitcher quality.
5. Weather.
6. A visiting team having a poor record on e.g. artificial surfaces or at particular grounds, or in night or day games.
7. The mental state of the teams, fatigue, management.
and so on...
This should give you a starting point for analysing your 'total' plays in
MLB Betting.
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