NBA Basketball Picks: Hoops, NBA, March Madness...

My NBA Eastern Conference selections sees the Heat back on the road again visiting New York. Miami hasn't beaten any team not named Boston on the road since January 12th, when they out shot Golden State. Their road issues do not seem to be getting any better. The last time they played the Knicks in their house, they were easily handled by a team that in a word isn't that hot. So how will things go this time around?

Well with D Wade out with a dislocated shoulder, Miami will be without one of their best on both sides of the ball. The last few games have seen a lack of defensive effort on the part of the Heat. However, the Knicks are not necessarily lighting it up, especially against physical teams. Sans Shaquille, Miami lacks a bruising presence under the basket. They block among the best in the league, and they are up there in steals, but they play in one of the weakest divisions in basketball, which can salt the stats a bit. They are close to replacing the Atlantic division as the conference joke.  New York, belongs to the Atlantic, and when Toronto is the division leader you know something is seriously wrong. Nobody on this Knicks team seems to want to take charge to lead their younger charges onto something more than a swipe at 8th place.

NBA trends see both Miami and New York improving over the past two weeks, with Miami slipping a bit with two recent road losses. Still very little separates these two teams. Using my simple fundamental logistic of recent scoring trends (Miami's last five road games and the Knicks five last home games), the Heat is at 95.6 and New York is at 102. So a 6 point separation favors the Knicks. Comparing their RR there is a slight differential of .335 in Miami's favor. This being a road game, I feel most comfortable for the visiting team to have a scoring factor of at least .5 or higher to for confidence in picking them to win. In this case, I can see a close game as Miami has picked up their scoring. This one will be much more contested than the last time they played - Pick: Knicks by 6

My Western Conference pick pits Portland vs. Seattle. Sure this looks like a contest between bottom dwellers, but in reality both teams are not that far from qualifying. 2 to 5 games back at this point in the season isn't time for desperation for franchises that find themselves in this position. 

The Trailblazers have been unreliable as far as solid picking skills are concerned. Beating Utah and LA on the road only to lose to Memphis at home clouds the issues behind what ails them. Portland could easily be one of the power teams in the west this season, yet they suffer the malaise of youth. If this talented roster can stick around for another two to three seasons, they will be dangerous. Of course we are in the here and now, and Portland is tired after having spent most of this month on the road. Seattle has also had a short stint on the road with varied results leading to losses.

This Supersonics squad is also plagued by youth and inconsistency, and this will be the deciding factor between these two teams Monday night. Look for this game to be mistake filled, and less than entertaining. Both the scoring trend and score factor favor the Trailblazers. There is almost nothing between these two teams with Portland's trend at 100 and Seattle's at 99.3. However the RR scoring factor is .61. A solid sign that the Trailblazers in spite of being road weary will win this one. NBA Pick: Portland slip past Supersonics by 5.