NFL Betting, Sure Things, Complacency and Great Comebacks.
You can profit from many different situations in NFL betting and one of my favorite areas to look at is 'motivation'. These are
those genuine 'must win' situations that apply to a team and do not apply to the same degree to the opposition team. By the same token
there are occasions where complacency can creep in - where a team does not need to win a game.
Such situations occur close to the NFL playoffs, when teams need to book their berths, or have already booked their berths in the post-season. Situations can
also occur when teams are streaks ahead in their Division and are so far ahead that their 'hunger' wanes somewhat in comparison to 'desperate' teams.
You need to be sure, however, that the 'must win' scenarios are genuine or that any likely complacency on another team will be for a good reason. You should analyze the latter scenarios along with coaching styles, injuries to key players and the usual handicapping techniques. Also pay particular attention to revenge situations.
Lets say that you have found your 'must win team' (A) playing another team (B) that has already booked a playoff berth. You know that the coach of team A is a tenacious type and you also know that team B is already through to the playoffs, has a more relaxed coach at the helm, and that some big players are going to be rested.
On the face of it this situation looks ideal but it is worth checking up on rivalries and scores in previous meetings. It could be that team A totally humiliated team B in the previous season, or that team B lost to a 'lucky score', or that one of Team B's popular players was badly injured by a deliberate personal foul from a Team A player (there could be a score to settle). Any of these factors could result in Team B putting in a shift and being more motivated than you might have anticipated.
There is of course the issue of actually winning your bet. There is no such thing as a 'sure thing' (or a 'lock' as the touts like to call it) in sport and in the NFL, like any other sports, things can get turned on their head pretty quickly. Remember these great NFL comebacks:
Indianapolis Colts v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay gave away twenty-one points in the final five minutes for the Colts to take it to OT and eventually take an incredible victory. This was especially impressive because at the time the Buccaneers were defense minded and reigning Super Bowl champions. Remember here that Dungy had previously been run out of town as Tampa coach only for the Buccs to go on and win Super Bowl. He now returned with his Colts team to find himself staring at a three touchdown defeat with just under five minutes to go. Revenge must have been very sweet.
Buffalo Bills v Houston Oilers
In their 'four consecutive Super Bowl appearances' era, Buffalo had to overcome a 35-3 scoreline against Houston and with a back-up quarterback. They tied in regular time and the Bills took it 41-38 in OT. In this game, huge segments of Buffalo fans left early only to create chaos as they turned back, after listening to the match unfold on the radio, to try to re-enter the stadium. Maybe one man could see it coming, Reich, the back-up Bills QB had also engineered one of the most spectacular comebacks in his college football days.
Miami Dolphins v New York Jets
The Jets trailed 30-7 in the 'Monday Night Miracle' only for them to come back to win in OT by 40-37. It was in this game that 'Jumbo' Elliott (offensive tackle) caught a crucial pass to tie the game late in the fourth quarter.
So you see, anything can happen, and sometimes does. If you do lose your bet because of a bad beat, or because your team implodes, then this does not always mean that your analysis was wrong...but may not mean that it was right either. Only time and good record keeping will tell you if you are any good at evaluating these types of situations.
Back to Sports / Betting Articles
Sites:
Sportsbook
Sports Odds:
NFL |
NBA |
MLB |
NHL |
NCAAF |
NCAAB |
Soccer |
Golf
Futures:
Super Bowl |
NBA Championship |
World Series |
Stanley Cup
