NFL Betting and The Effect of New Coaches
I have long had a theory and it is no doubt a theory amongst many handicappers and sports followers, that when there is a coaching change during the season, this
can dramatically improve the team's performance for the next few games.
If you are into NFL betting or putting your money
on any sports event, this is can be a 'nice little earner'. Ok, coaching changes during the season are not that regular but when
they occur they often do so due to a team's poor performance - the reason why most coaches are fired in the first place. If a team is performing badly, then it's price or odds
could be artificially high and that is where the 'new manager effect' can be lucrative because you can bet on that team at what
may be an enhanced price.
I love to play, watch and follow soccer. I can't remember the amount of times a new manager has joined a club mid-way through a season, to run a team on it's knees, with morale at an all time low - only
for that same team to win its next few games. 'Instinctively' (because I never kept the stats) the 'positive bounce' seems to last for about
three games - before the club falters again. Still, I wondered if anyone else was of the same opinion.
Low and behold, in an old NFL football newsletter from the mid-nineties, I read about a bunch of handicappers who
had noticed the same thing but actually did the hard work in tracking head coaches who were fired / replaced during the regular
NFL season and the effect it had on the team.
Their research showed that the teams responded by covering the spread for the next three games, after which the 'effect'
tended to wear off.
This effect can probably be attributed to the 'stand together' emotions that surface when a manager is fired and also
because the games immediately following a new manager's arrival, give the players a chance to impress and perhaps cement
their places in the team.
I probably should keep records of this effect next season in the Premiership and the NFL and ask my friend to monitor MLB, NBA and NHL.
You have to be a little careful, because I would imagine that the new manager effect may not work late in the
season if, for instance, a team had nothing at all to play for (e.g. didn't make the post season) but this is a strategy
that I will be keeping a close eye on regarding my
NFL football betting in the coming seasons. Watch this space!
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